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The information on this page is intended only for the use of independent financial advisers (IFAs) and other professional financial intermediaries. Please read the following information before proceeding. Reliance should not be placed on the information within this website and the views expressed when taking investment decisions. Please also confirm that you are an IFA or other professional financial intermediary, that you have read the information and wish to proceed further by clicking on the ‘Accept’ icon. If you are a retail investor, please click on the ‘Decline’ icon and visit the FP Brompton funds and WAY Global funds pages of our website. If you do not wish to proceed further, please also click on the ‘Decline’ icon.

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Views and opinions

Brompton has expressed views and opinions on this website and these may change.

Accuracy

Brompton has taken reasonable care and employed reasonable skill to ensure that the information contained in this website is accurate at the time when this information is supplied by Brompton via its internet service. Errors and omissions may, however, occur because of a number of factors inherent in web-based information delivery and are not within Brompton’s reasonable control. For example, errors or omissions may occur because of unauthorised access to this website or the impact of hardware, software or operator error or a data transmission malfunction. Brompton, therefore, advises website visitors to confirm the accuracy of any information with Brompton before seeking to rely on such information.

Please read the following important information before proceeding. This includes information on some of the laws and regulations applicable to this website.

The information on this site is issued and approved by Brompton Asset Management LLP (Brompton) of 1 Knightsbridge Green, London, SW1X 7QA. Brompton is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

This website is for information purposes only and prospective clients should refer to Brompton’s printed literature. Any prices and other information on this website do not constitute personal recommendations or advice.

The material on this site is directed only at persons in the UK. It is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. It is your responsibility to inform yourself of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdictions. Specifically, this website should not be accessed by any US Person. Please see a definition of a US Person at the end of this document.

Brompton may record telephone calls to protect the interests of clients and itself and to improve customer service.

Investments

You should always bear the following in mind:
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up and you may not get back all of your original investment. Changes in exchange rates may cause the value of investments and the income from them to go down or up.

If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided on this website, please consult your financial or other professional adviser. Brompton Asset Management does not offer investment advice.

No reliance

Brompton has taken all reasonable care that the information contained within the website is accurate at the time of the publication. Brompton, however, makes no representation or warranty, including liability towards third parties, expressed or implied, as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness. Information, opinions and estimates and any other contents on this website are provided by Brompton for information purposes only and are subject to change without notice.

Nothing contained on the website constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. You should obtain relevant and specific professional advice before making any investment decision.

No warranty

Brompton assumes no responsibility for, and makes no warranties that, functions contained on the website will be uninterrupted or error-free, that defects will be corrected, or that the website or the servers that make it available will be free of viruses or other harmful components.

Liability waiver

Under no circumstances, including, but not limited to, negligence, shall Brompton be liable for any special or consequential damages that result from the access or use of, or the inability to access or use, the materials at the website.

You should be aware that the internet is not a completely reliable transmission medium. Brompton shall not have any liability for any data transmission errors such as data loss or damage or alteration of any kind, including, but not limited to, any direct, indirect or consequential damage, arising out of the use of the services provided herein.

Messages that you send to Brompton by e-mail may not be secure. You are recommended not to send any confidential information to Brompton by e-mail. If you choose to send any confidential information to Brompton via e-mail you do so at your own risk with the knowledge that a third party may intercept this information. Instructions sent by you via e-mail and to the website are processed exclusively at your risk.

This website may contain links to other sites. Brompton is not responsible for the content or privacy practices of those other sites.

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We will use the personal data that you provide us on the website to process information requests that you make. In order to use your personal data as set out here, these may be stored and processed in any country worldwide and will be disclosed to partnerships and companies in the Brompton group and their agents.

Further information

This information will be updated from time to time. You are advised to check if any such updates have been made since you last visited this website.

US Persons

A US Person is any natural person resident in the United States (US); or a company or partnership incorporated or organised in the US, but excluding an offshore branch or agency of a US person that operates for valid business reasons and is engaged and regulated as an insurance company or bank; or a branch or agency of a foreign entity located in the US; or a trust of which the trustee is a US person, unless a non-US person has or shares investment discretion; or an estate of which a US person is the executor or administrator, unless the estate is governed by foreign law and a non-US person has or shares investment discretion; or a non-discretionary account held for the benefit of a US person; or a discretionary account held by a US dealer or fiduciary, unless held for the benefit of a non-US person; or any entity organised or incorporated for the purposes of evading US securities laws.

Market outlook
MARKET OUTLOOK

Brompton invests globally in all major asset classes. In making asset allocation decisions, first, we use information conveyed by numerous data releases to build a picture of the global economic outlook. Secondly, we combine the message from the data with our knowledge and investment experience to determine which investments are likely to perform in the prevailing economic conditions. Thirdly, we analyse valuations to identify genuine opportunities. Please use the dropdown menu to view our current thoughts about each major asset class and geographical region.

Overview
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  • US interest rates “close to neutral” following rise to 2.25-2.5% in December 2018
  • Monetary policy tightening continues as Fed shrinks balance sheet
  • European Central Bank and Bank of Japan monetary policy remains supportive for now
  • Global economic growth may slow and could prove vulnerable to increased protectionism
  • Unemployment at historically-low levels in US and UK may foster wage inflation
Equities
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  • Performance of US technology stocks a major driver of gains for global equities since the credit crisis
  • Slowing global growth may lead to earnings downgrades
  • US stock valuations are high but may persist amid low inflation and steady economic growth
  • Recent falls may present a buying opportunity for some equity markets including UK and Japan
  • Lowly-valued Asia ex-Japan and emerging markets may recover strongly if the dollar weakens and trade disputes dissipate.
  • “Value” companies may outperform expensive “quality” companies as growth slows and inflation rises
Bonds
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  • Flattening US yield curve may signal recession should US 10-year yields fall below 2-year yields
  • US inflation may rise further than anticipated as near-full employment fosters wage inflation
  • UK interest rates rose in August 2018. Bank of England policy remains highly accommodative because of Brexit
  • Short-dated and inflation-linked bonds may prove less vulnerable than longer-dated bonds amid rising inflation expectations and interest rates
US
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  • Senior loan officer surveys suggest that tighter monetary policy has not materially affected economy
  • Fiscal stimulus from Tax Cuts and Jobs Act should promote consumer and business spending growth
  • Sino-US trade tensions may persist as China seeks to compete with US in producing higher value-added goods
  • Profits of US financials to rise as longer-dated bond yields rise more than shorter-dated yields
UK
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  • Sterling vulnerable to a poor outcome from Brexit talks
  • Consumer spending may be squeezed by higher inflation with real wage growth subdued
  • Bank of England raised rates in August and may be too dovish on likely pace of further monetary tightening
  • UK equities on relatively low valuations compared to some European equity markets
Europe ex-UK
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  • Eurozone leading indicators weakening
  • Unemployment falling but remains high with significant country differences
  • Central bank policy supportive as no interest rate rise anticipated until late 2019
  • Rising protectionism a concern for export-orientated economies
  • Eurosceptic Italian coalition government raises political risk
Japan
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  • Bank of Japan policy of near-zero 10-year government bond yields intended to weaken currency and stimulate inflation
  • Japanese equities lowly valued relative to other major equity markets
  • Yen a safe-haven asset at times of market stress
  • Abe’s corporate sector reforms increase focus on growing profits and improving shareholder returns
China
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  • First quarter may be weaker-than-anticipated because of stock build-up in advance of potential tariff hikes
  • The yuan has fallen against the dollar to increase export competitiveness
  • China is committed to “made in China 2025” policies of subsidising businesses in industries such as robotics, electric vehicles and biotech
  • Monetary policy has become more accommodative including moves to encourage bank lending
Asia Pacific ex-Japan and emerging markets
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  • Trade tariffs lead to capital flight from some
  • Trade tariffs stimulate capital flight from some emerging markets
  • Economies running budget deficits vulnerable to rising interest rates
  • Some emerging markets cheap relative to developed markets
  • Oil price weakness benefits energy importers
Hedge funds
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  • Returns poor since the credit crisis
  • Some daily-traded funds may deliver positive risk-adjusted returns and reduce overall portfolio risk as longer-dated bonds and some equities appear expensive
  • Rising inflation may lead to rotation from “expensive defensives” to cheaper cyclical stocks, increasing opportunities for long/short managers
  • Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) regulation a Brompton requirement
Gold
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  • Gold retains safe-haven attractions at times of heightened volatility
  • Gold demand from financial buyers may fall amid rising inflation and interest rates as opportunity cost of nil-yielding assets increases
  • Gold miners have proved highly sensitive to gold price movements
  • Chinese central bank purchases lower than expected
  • India introduced policies to discourage gold hoarding
Commodities
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  • Supply-side shock in 2014 resulted in major oil price fall as producers competed for market share
  • Reduction in US output in 2016 led to recovery in oil price but US production rose in 2017 and 2018
  • Recent oil price weakness stemming from rising US oil output and investors’ fears of an economic growth slowdown
Property
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  • Brexit may lead to falling demand for London offices
  • Rising inflation may lead to rising bond yields and falling demand for longer-duration assets such as commercial property
  • FCA consultation paper may force open-ended, daily-dealing funds to suspend dealing at times of market stress
  • Some direct property funds have substantial proportions of their portfolios in cash

This market outlook is based on the opinions of Brompton’s asset management team at the time of writing, supported by publicly-available information and other sources that Brompton believes to be reliable. Brompton cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information expressed. The views and opinions expressed are subject to change. They do not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as such. Nor should they be considered a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a security. Brompton will not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this material. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the value of investments, and the income from them, may fall as well as rise.